Saturday, June 28, 2014

Telecom stocks reratings

Telecom stocks are like US railroads stocks of 1940s . They have large  debt in their books  and have high depreciation to take care .

Interestingly they generate good loads of cash month after month . all new electronic equipment we use need to run on this highway and we all consumers have to pay rent to telecom company .

They are in consumer facing business and people are pretty aware of the brand they use , but premium paid for brand is low so in  sense one may say they are commodity business like sugar ,potato etc .But strangely people don't monitor their payout to these companies that closely as grocery items even when the amount is pretty significant

Unlike consumer  companies they don't have raw material cost that increases yoy but it increases once in 20 years , and hence they face valuation and debt challenges once in 20 years , post that they have significant advantages on raw material cost , network effects and distribution scale advantages .If one goes by porter frameworks barriers to entry is high , and consumer power is very limited , substitutes are not many . unlike airlines the industry is more rational and has generated profits even in worst years
so what ...
I feel it I'd right time load up these share inspite of. new competition as price to cash flow is in single digit and environment is becoming conducive ,  raw material has been bought ( price fixed for next 20 years ) .

Aache din ...

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